I had meant to put more content together around these numbers, but due to time constraints I won’t be able to. Regardless, the picture speaks for itself. Here’s my AMZN ‘Other’ revenue numbers with the blue bar representing my estimates of AWS revenue with the green bar representing the rest of AMZN’s ‘Other’ line.
The estimates of AWS revenue come from my 2009 blog posting estimate (~250M), UBS numbers and estimates for 2010/2011, and extrapolating the predicted roughly 100% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) that AWS seems to be on. Note that some data we have show much faster growth such as AWS’ published numbers for S3 which show >150% CAGR for that service.
Another data point is that if you look at the 10-Q numbers for AMZN Other you will notice that the ‘Other’ line is now AMZN’s fasting growing line of business at >80% CAGR for their entire top line with electronics, their second fastest growing line of business down from 75% CAGR in 2010 to ~50% CAGR in 2011.
In other words, the ‘Other’ is now Amazon’s fastest growing business, it’s accelerated over the past several years, *and* we are in a recession. Oh, and if that weren’t enough, according to my research, AMZN sees a huge quarter-over-quarter bump in Q4 every year (~40%).
Bottom line is that AMZN Other will be at 1.3B ending this year with roughly ~1B in AWS alone.
I also ran the numbers out to 2013 using the previous 5 years of growth to see what happens and you can see for yourself. AWS could be 4B in 2013. 4B in 7 years. These numbers and trajectory also reinforce my previous predictions about total AWS size in 2016.